The stock market — and individual stocks of which it's comprised — are very similar to the Apollo 11 launch. The roaring of the engine, the fire and the smoke from the thrust of a rocket are much like the news flow around stocks. The fuel that drives stocks, like rockets, higher: the earnings, the dividends and the share buybacks. Now, there have been times when great news comes out about a company, such as an earnings beat, or a board-approved buyback plan… and a stock doesn't do anything — or tanks. Take Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) for example… In the early 2000, the stock was trading for a few pennies, but over time with strong earnings growth the company's stock price has now reached into the mid-$50s. Most recently, though, on March 1, 2018, Monster's share price fell by 13% in a single day. Why? Because they missed analyst earnings estimates, even though their sales grew 8% year-over-year and management approved a $250 million dollar share buyback. But much to the market's surprise, Monster shares have rebounded since their lukewarm earnings report. This goes to show strong fundamentals and good management win the day… not big news headlines. So let this be a lesson during this earning season… The short-term psychology of investors might drive the price of a stock up and down in the wrong direction. But in the long run… the direction of a company's earnings tells the true story of its stock's outcome. Earning season officially kicked off last Friday with American banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) leading the way. JPMorgan single handedly smashed earnings but their shares — along with other big names — fell. If you're a shareholder, it's a bummer to see a company announce great earnings news and see its stock fall. After all, you'd expect the stock to go up on the news, right? Sometimes the market acts in unique ways. But the bank has held strong over the last week and was even higher by over 2% yesterday. If you're a long-term investor, I would bet that JPMorgan and the other banks end the year higher than where they are now after reporting such strong fundamentals. Just like the Apollo 11 "lift off" does not mean you are automatically the moon, it's just the beginning of the journey. A journey that could deliver you handsome profits along the way! Yours for Weekly Profits, Alan Knuckman Analyst, The Daily Edge |
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